Invest 93L (now Tropical Storm Bertha)

Coconuts · Post by **Coconuts** » Tue Jul 29, 2014 6:01 am

The VI's 2014 storm season appears to be kicking off, with a tropical disturbance now under investigation ("Invest 93L") 1000 miles WSW of the Cape Verde islands. The models show this disturbance becoming more organized and likely to become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours, probably developing into a named tropical storm ("Bertha", in this case) a day or two after that, and perhaps becoming a hurricane towards the weekend. Some of the forecast models show it heading directly towards the VI, although the most likely tracks have it curving a bit north. These model tracks will tighten up a lot over the next few days. The eye of any storm is pretty small, as are the islands of the VI, so a direct hit is fortunately quite rare; the 1500 mile long and nearly fully populated east coast of the US mainland presents a very different sort of target. The next two months are likely to include a number of storm systems, as they develop off the coast of Africa and careen westwards. Here are some helpful links for following these storms as they develop:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... _region=at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
http://stormcarib.com

Back in 1996, the eye of Hurricane Bertha passed over the eastern tip of Tortola, and damaged over 1,000 homes on St. John.
As Robert Hunter wrote, "Bertha, don't you come around here, anymore"!

All the best,

Kevin

michigan girls · Post by **michigan girls** » Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:37 pm

So what do you think Kevin? TS, TD, Hurricane? Looks a little more favorable against hurricane now, as far as I can see. And more importantly in the minds of those of us with upcoming trips... how long would you guess until things are back to beautiful and calm

Coconuts · Post by **Coconuts** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:16 am

MG's: It's hard to say. 93L is struggling a bit to organize itself, but the model tracks still have it heading pretty close to the VI, passing by sometime Sunday. We have notified both of our guests to monitor the storm's progress. I think that it is likely to advance to a tropical depression today, and become Tropical Storm Bertha by the weekend. There's a chance that it could reach Category 1 Hurricane status by the time it reaches the VI, although passing through the windward isles may disrupt it a bit. For anyone interested in a great detailed analysis of this and subsequent storms, I highly recommend Jeff Master's blog, the third link in my original post. He updates his blog daily. As to when things are back to beautiful and calm, they are now, and will remain so except for the brief and potentially challenging few hours when the storm passes by. The problem is that we are now in the season where a regular succession of these storms will roll off the coast of Africa and head in the general direction of the VI. There is another candidate forming now. Here's to a season with overflowing cisterns, and no roofs lost!

Edit, noon Thursday: While a few models still show tracks over the VI, the consensus track now has it passing by to the south on Saturday. Dry shearing winds are slowing the storm's development, and while it will probably be a named tropical storm by Saturday, it won't be a hurricane by then (if ever), and its maximum sustained winds are unlikely to top 55 mph before it leaves the VI. Depending on how far south of St. John it heads, wind gusts there could be modest; we're hoping for some rain from the outer bands, though. The miss of Tropical Storm (subsequently Hurricane) Rafael in October of 2012 did make for a very nice sunset photo (below).

: TS Rafael sunset

As the storm heads past on Saturday, zoomed-in satellite imagery can be viewed here: http://www.vi-satweather.com

All the best,

Kevin

lprof · Post by **lprof** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 7:54 am

Also, weather links and information can be found on this website...

http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/weather/

... pull down to the bottom of the "Trip Planning" tab above for weather

I like the full cisterns and stable roofs idea!

Post by **Anthony** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:25 pm

Yes my Caribbean Hurricane blog is here - totally revamped this year: http://www.caribbean-on-line.com/hurricanes/

Coconuts · Post by **Coconuts** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 8:16 am

Well, Invest 93L was officially named Tropical Storm Bertha in the early hours of Friday morning. That said, it is still tracking well south of St. John, and the northern edge of its forecast cone barely kisses St. Croix. TS Bertha is not predicted to develop into a hurricane, and its maximum sustained winds should remain below 55 mph. Bertha's likely tracks over land include the western part of Puerto Rico and the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic. The closest approach to St. John will be shortly after noon on Saturday, and its outer bands could deliver a lot of rain throughout the day. June was very dry, so the cisterns could use the rain.

All the best,

Kevin

PS: Anthony: Duh! Sorry not to have included you in the list. Dutifully bookmarked, and nice work!

ColumbiaSCTraveler · Post by **ColumbiaSCTraveler** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:46 am

We are supposed to be flying out of CLT TOMORROW at 9:50am, arriving on STT at 1:45pm. (See us over there on the "Forum Members on Island" list?!? That's us!)

I called US Air this AM and they said the flight was still showing as "On Time." I mentioned Bertha and was told they hadn't received any advisories. Whaaaaaat?!? I was told to keep checking the website. So....I will.

So....I guess we're still going tomorrow....?!?!

michigan girls · Post by **michigan girls** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:17 pm

ColumbiaSCTraveler wrote:We are supposed to be flying out of CLT TOMORROW at 9:50am, arriving on STT at 1:45pm. (See us over there on the "Forum Members on Island" list?!? That's us!)

I called US Air this AM and they said the flight was still showing as "On Time." I mentioned Bertha and was told they hadn't received any advisories. Whaaaaaat?!? I was told to keep checking the website. So....I will.

So....I guess we're still going tomorrow....?!?!

Doesn't look like it will delay your flight, but I am wondering about your ferry across?

Bluestreak12 · Post by **Bluestreak12** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:38 pm

We've had a wonderful stay here on St. John and now a little concerned with our flight that leaves at 2:45 pm tomorrow. Looking at the hour by hour forecast, the winds are to be 25 mph. I just called Varlack and asked them if they would be operating and the response was "they should be". I guess I'll keep my fingers crossed.

michigan girls · Post by **michigan girls** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:41 pm

Bluestreak12 wrote:We've had a wonderful stay here on St. John and now a little concerned with our flight that leaves at 2:45 pm tomorrow. Looking at the hour by hour forecast, the winds are to be 25 mph. I just called Varlack and asked them if they would be operating and the response was "they should be". I guess I'll keep my fingers crossed.

There are worse things in the world than to be stuck on St John

liamsaunt · Post by **liamsaunt** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:48 pm

I am on island now. The villa management company called a little while ago and said they are expecting 50 mph winds overnight. I can hear some of the villas around me being boarded up.

The worst of it is supposed to be tomorrow. Sounds like lots of rain. Sunday looks like it should be sunny again

Safe travels to those who are having to travel tomorrow.

michigan girls · Post by **michigan girls** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:53 pm

liamsaunt wrote:I am on island now. The villa management company called a little while ago and said they are expecting 50 mph winds overnight. I can hear some of the villas around me being boarded up.

The worst of it is supposed to be tomorrow. Sounds like lots of rain. Sunday looks like it should be sunny again

Safe travels to those who are having to travel tomorrow.

Are they coming to your villa to do any storm prep? Should be an interesting night - stay safe and let us know how it goes.

ColumbiaSCTraveler · Post by **ColumbiaSCTraveler** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 4:51 pm

OH NO, Liamsaunt! 50 mph?!

Still nothing from US Air. Everytime I check, it says our flight is "ON TIME."

lprof · Post by **lprof** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 5:47 pm

FYI: from http://www.vialert.gov/Public/News/Aler ... =AghxO4T6A&

Headline: US Coast Guard to Close Ports by Midnight; Ferries Set to Cease Operations by 10 p.m. Tonight
Activation Time: 08/01/14 5:32 PM
Expiration Time: 08/02/14 6:51 PM
Issued By: VITEMA
Affected Jurisdictions: St. John Island (All)
St. Thomas Island (All)
Water Island (All)
Description:

The US Coast Guard will close sea ports by midnight tonight due to the threat of Tropical Storm Bertha. Ferry operators have adjusted their hours of operations to allow enough time for vessels to be secured.

Transportation Service's will make its final trip from Cruz Bay, St. John at 8 p.m. and from Red Hook, St. Thomas at 9 p.m. tonight.

Varlick Ventures' last trip from Cruz Bay, St. John is scheduled for 9 p.m. and the final trip from Red Hook, St. Thomas is at 10 p.m. tonight.
Instructions:

The US Coast Guard will closely monitor storm conditions throughout the morning on Saturday and conduct port assessment in order to determine when it's safe to return to open port. More information will be provided as it becomes available.

ColumbiaSCTraveler · Post by **ColumbiaSCTraveler** » Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:27 pm

So based on what lprof posted, it doesn't look like the "ferry ban" will be over until 6:51pm tomorrow...???

usvi-on-line