Tropical Storm (now Hurricane) Gonzalo

Coconuts · Post by **Coconuts** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 2:20 pm

The NHC just upgraded Invest 90L to a Tropical Storm, skipping the Tropical Depression stage. It is likely to be reclassified as a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday morning, when its center will pass very close to the VI, and winds will hit 75 mph. A lot of rain and strong winds are expected. We are watching this one carefully.

: Tropical Storm Gonzalo

All the best,

Kevin

jerseygirl062 · Post by **jerseygirl062** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:41 pm

May you all get lots of (overnight) rain for the cisterns and not much else !

GratefulDad · Post by **GratefulDad** » Sun Oct 12, 2014 3:55 pm

Yeah, I was there for TS Bertha in August. It rained a lot and was very windy up in the hills. Lost power off and on for a couple days. The party was on in downtown Cruz Bay. The water was a foot deep over by Caps and the guys over there were blasting the music and dancing down the street. The rain came in heavy downpours for one day. The next day was sunny. Hope this one moves along quickly.

Coconuts · Post by **Coconuts** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 12:05 pm

11 AM update: The storm track of Tropical Storm (soon to be Hurricane) Gonzalo is now forecast to pass just NE of Anegada, which is good news for St. John. Being away from the eye, and on the SW side, the wind speeds will be reduced. I plotted the 0, 12, 24, 36, and 48 hour forecast positions of the storm center from the 11 AM update on the graphic below. Looks as though this storm will produce more hurricane parties than damage.

: Storm track as of 11 AM Monday

5 PM Monday update: A hurricane hunter aircraft confirmed hurricane force winds, so the upgrade to Hurricane status occured 12-16 hours earlier than expected. However, the track has shifted a bit further to the NE, so things still look reasonable for St. John.
All the best,

Kevin

dctac · Post by **dctac** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 5:51 pm

I moved from Gibney to the westin... thank momma nature it's goin a bit north. If it was 25 years ago I'd probably have gotten awesome shots of the gut washin outand the ocean pushin in !!
But now I'm older and wiser? sittin in the comfort of the westin with gererators, 90 plus feet above with a bottle of barbencourt rum .
Right now a good sunset sky... super fine drizzle. but not a bit of wind.awsome calm before the storm................

augie · Post by **augie** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:02 pm

Rain on and off in Coral Bay, and the same with wind (cooling breezes!).

But as Bill Murray's character in Caddyshack said "I don't think the heavy stuff's gonna come down for quite awhile".

Expecting a blustery morning, from well before dawn to well after...

Coconuts · Post by **Coconuts** » Tue Oct 14, 2014 7:26 am

Hurricane Gonzalo has left the territory, and its actual track ended up further to the northeast than forecast, with the closest approach of the eye being 84 miles away:

: Actual track of Hurricane Gonzalo

Thankfully, it delivered a lot less wind and rain than had been expected, and the sun should be out again shortly. The ferries are back in operation, and schools and government offices that had closed have now been reopened. Time to fish all of the deck furniture out of its safe storage in the pools. That said, anyone thinking of heading to the beach should avoid any exposed North Shore beaches; large swells from the storm (18 feet high up near the storm) will make for dangerous conditions today and possibly tomorrow. Maho and Francis may be OK, as would be any South Shore beaches.

: Wave height 150 miles north of St. John

All the best,

Kevin

Ida · Post by **Ida** » Tue Oct 14, 2014 8:53 am

Thanks Keven for the update.

Exit Zero · Post by **Exit Zero** » Tue Oct 14, 2014 10:37 am

Went past NE of the USVI - here is the wind recording from 2 Brothers Buoy in Pillsbury Sound.

http://windalert.com/spot/48694

dctac · Post by **dctac** » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:16 pm

kevin
could you do a forcast on the next sytem? I;m on island at Gibney beach with limited reception and am flying out saturday. you seem to have a good handle on it and if I got to get to STT friday if ferries stop I need to know sooner than better.... I love mother nature till she bites me!
Thanks

Coconuts · Post by **Coconuts** » Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:33 pm

dctac: Invest 91L is headed anywhere BUT the VI, so enjoy your time at Gibney, and forget all about storms! The forecast track screen shot for 91L below, from http://www.wunderground.com, should give you a good sense of where this system isn't headed. The cottages at Gibney look really nice; we've considered staying there ourselves some time.

: Forecast tracks for Invest 91L

[Edit, 5 PM Wednesday: Poof! Rather than spiral up into the North Atlantic, Invest 91L has instead winked out altogether. I'm calling the end of the 2014 storm season once Gonzalo becomes a remnant. It could wreck some havoc yet before it does, though; Gonzalo was just upgraded to Category 4, and its forecast track is headed very close to Bermuda on Friday.]

: Naught but Gonzalo

All the best,

Kevin

dctac · Post by **dctac** » Mon Oct 20, 2014 8:11 pm

Thanks for the quick update last week. Spent a nite in the Westin. Gibney was awesome but is right next to a gut and not much beach between cottage and water. But that makes it all the better. Walked out every morning and had a swim , everynite , Had Hawksnest to ourselves... It's perfect.... you don't need TV....
I'm already thinkin when to go again, not sure if I want to try to reason with Hurricane season again!!!!
Thanks again........

usvi-on-line