Hurricane forecast/Sahara Dust

[Bluestreak12]

I've seen a couple of news articles predicting a quiet hurricane season. Here's one that attributes it to El Nino and lower Atlantic Ocean temps: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2957

Does anybody think that this will increase the probability of more Sahara dust this summer? We were on St. John last July and it was pretty bad on certain days. We're returning this July and hope it's better than it was last year. I'm sure we'll have a good time either way though, so there's no real sense in worrying about it.

[Coconuts]

Bluestreak12: I am pretty sure that the arrow of causality runs the other way; while high levels of Sahara dust do suppress hurricane activity, a lower than average hurricane season doesn't cause there to be more Sahara dust. That is driven by wind storms over Saharan Africa, which are not modulated by El Nino. If you didn't catch it at the time, here is a post of mine with some info on, and an on-line forecaster for, Sahara dust:
http://www.virgin-islands-on-line.com/v ... S-mUimd5SU

All the best,

Kevin

[Bluestreak12]

Thanks Kevin for the information. That is very useful. I thought that maybe the hurricanes might help clear out some of the Saraha dust or alter the path away from the Virgin Islands.