Weather patterns

[Coconuts]

The weather on St. John is usually great, with sunny days, blue skies, and puffy white clouds sculling along with the trade winds. Twice a year, though, there is typically a full week or so of unsettled weather; these tend to fall somewhere between mid April and late May, and again somewhere between late October and early December. This helps account for the fact that May is the wettest month of the otherwise "dry season" (see graph, below). Looking at satellite weather images, I noticed a pattern yesterday that I have witnessed before, in which clouds and rain stream in an arc starting in Venezuela, and passing up and over the VI. This arc runs counter to the normal east to west trades, as it flows from southwest to northeast. You can check it out at the following live (five hour) satellite image link:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=11

This pattern just set in the other day, and may herald the start of some unsettled weather.

Here's that graph of rainfall by month:

Rainfall and temperature by month

All the best,

Kevin

[loria]

yeah... we need the rain (no one knows more than i do!) and i have my first trip back in ages... and my husband hasn't been in ages..... and this is a small break for him ... and i KNOW we need the rain..... but i was just hoping for a few days of sun..... (i am not complaining ..well, not really )

[nancyr84]

We experienced that week a few years ago. We still had a great time though. You can snorkel in the rain. I would personally not worry people , like you said it COULD signal a start of unsettled weather. This is the kind of thing that may be best unsaid, just my opinion.

[GratefulDad]

I agree Kevin. I think this may help the water situation on St John. I think this pattern will last a bit so hopefully it is not one big downpour, but a sustained period of showery weather. For the regulars who go down in May, they know the risk of the weather not being optimal.

[hugo]

But looking at the long-term record, May is the most variable month--so there have been a number of years when the May rain misses us, and those are generally the disastrously dry years. What has been unusual is how long it's been since we've had a really painful drought.