usvi-on-line
Tropical Storm Danny?
Re: Tropical Storm Danny?
sabum1: "Do you think Danny is going to ruin our trip?"
Is this possible? Yes. Is this probable? No.
The Atlantic is vast, and both the eye of what will almost certainly become Hurricane Danny in a day or so, and the island of St. John, are in comparison very small. The odds of a direct hit or very near miss are accordingly very low, and current day forecasting provides plenty of advance notice, such that you will definitely be able to cancel your flight or leave well in advance of either should their odds expand. Our forebears didn't have this privilege of modern weather forecasting, but you do. Most trip cancellation insurance policies require that they be purchased prior to a storm being named, so hopefully you recognized that there was some risk, and did so beforehand. The last two "big ones", Hugo and Marylyn, occurred a very long time ago, in 1989 and 1995 respectively, if that helps. Storms that miss us often pass the VI within a day, leaving little other than some very welcome, cistern replenishing rain, and a beautiful sunset (see below). What is now TS Danny was a mere area of investigation this morning, advancing to a Tropical Depression this afternoon, and a named Tropical Storm this evening. Here are a few sites where you can monitor Danny as the storm continues to develop, and its track sharpens:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... torm-Danny
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... p=ensmodel
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ?map=model
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Satellite weather viewing sites include the following:
Large scale: http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... e_anim.gif
Medium scale: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=11
Fine scale: http://www.vi-satweather.com
Best wishes; we will be coming down a bit later in this storm season. Storms such as Danny are part and parcel of summer in the VI, but FWIW, this storm season has been late to develop due to the strong El Nino in the Pacific, and 2015 is likely to be a mild hurricane year as a result. On the other hand, it only takes one direct hit or very near miss to wreck havoc. We monitor summer storms carefully, so as to be able to advise the guests at our villas.
Here's a three-image panorama of the western sky from the deck at Coconuts, taken on the evening that Tropical Storm Rafael jogged at the last minute and missed the VI in 2012 (click on the image to expand it):
By the way, the same folks whose elaborate computer models give us such accurate advance notice of storm tracks these days also have some dire forecasts for the longer term weather on our planet, which we all need to heed. Take care.
All the best,
Kevin
Is this possible? Yes. Is this probable? No.
The Atlantic is vast, and both the eye of what will almost certainly become Hurricane Danny in a day or so, and the island of St. John, are in comparison very small. The odds of a direct hit or very near miss are accordingly very low, and current day forecasting provides plenty of advance notice, such that you will definitely be able to cancel your flight or leave well in advance of either should their odds expand. Our forebears didn't have this privilege of modern weather forecasting, but you do. Most trip cancellation insurance policies require that they be purchased prior to a storm being named, so hopefully you recognized that there was some risk, and did so beforehand. The last two "big ones", Hugo and Marylyn, occurred a very long time ago, in 1989 and 1995 respectively, if that helps. Storms that miss us often pass the VI within a day, leaving little other than some very welcome, cistern replenishing rain, and a beautiful sunset (see below). What is now TS Danny was a mere area of investigation this morning, advancing to a Tropical Depression this afternoon, and a named Tropical Storm this evening. Here are a few sites where you can monitor Danny as the storm continues to develop, and its track sharpens:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... torm-Danny
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... p=ensmodel
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/a ... ?map=model
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Satellite weather viewing sites include the following:
Large scale: http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... e_anim.gif
Medium scale: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=11
Fine scale: http://www.vi-satweather.com
Best wishes; we will be coming down a bit later in this storm season. Storms such as Danny are part and parcel of summer in the VI, but FWIW, this storm season has been late to develop due to the strong El Nino in the Pacific, and 2015 is likely to be a mild hurricane year as a result. On the other hand, it only takes one direct hit or very near miss to wreck havoc. We monitor summer storms carefully, so as to be able to advise the guests at our villas.
Here's a three-image panorama of the western sky from the deck at Coconuts, taken on the evening that Tropical Storm Rafael jogged at the last minute and missed the VI in 2012 (click on the image to expand it):
- Sunset after Tropical Storm Rafael
All the best,
Kevin
Re: Tropical Storm Danny?
My short answer - possibly. It's too early to know of sure but this is one of the many forecasted tracks - we are all watching but not panicking .... yet !
Pia
Pia
- Attachments
-
Realtor - St John Properties
Re: Tropical Storm Danny?
For the record, the white line in Pia's image is the mean of many different computer models. A look at all of them, below, will probably provide a better sense of risk. We will all be watching as these model track forecasts tighten over the next six days.
All the best,
Kevin
- TS Danny ensemble models
Kevin