USVI-On-Line

As was predicted by health authorities, Zika infections in the VI have recently collapsed, and are now essentially zero. The cycle played out very much as it did with Chikungunya, back in 2014. In both cases, infections on St. John were a minuscule fraction of overall infections, which is directly related to the habits of the transmitting mosquito, Aedes aegypti. These are household mosquitoes, and sustained viral transmission requires a high (urban) population density. St. John, where two-thirds of the island is a National Park, with low density vacation rentals accounting for much of the remainder, is simply not a supportive environment for mosquito-borne viral transmission.

In the higher population density areas of St. Thomas and St. Croix, where the epidemic did briefly become self-sustaining, the well-known phenomena of "herd immunity" has set in, and this has fueled the recent collapse in infection rates.

Here is a graph of the latest (October 26, 2016) data from the VI Dept. of Health:
The VI Department of Health link is here:
http://doh.vi.gov/assets/documents/2016 ... Report.pdf

The 2014 CHIKV epidemic looked very similar, albeit with a delay for St. Croix:
Here is a link to a 2014 VIOL post of mine when CHIKV was over:
http://www.virgin-islands-on-line.com/v ... =1&t=27416

Good riddance!

PS: Even at very low levels of risk, it is still worth using prudent protection against mosquito bites. A little loose clothing or repellent certainly beats itchy bites!

All the best,

Kevin

Great news! Thanks, Kevin!

Thank you for the update and providing the detailed information!

Ummm.... Maybe so, but 5 people I know on St John have Zika right now, although I'm not sure if any of them are going to the trouble to try to get tested.

This is intriguing. Not saying I don't agree with the data and this is totally anecdotal, but zika seems to be at its peak at my kids' school. Of course I didn't take my children to get tested because I didn't see the point and I'm sure there are many people who don't get tested.

Interesting... The collapse in reported and confirmed infections could in principle simply reflect a collapse in the rates of voluntary testing. The steep decline in CHIKV confirmations back in 2014 was quickly followed by a collapse in anecdotal reports, but then again, CHIKV was a much more painful illness, so that could account for why people sought medical help and got tested at such higher rates back then. It's interesting that more than half of the samples submitted during the last year came back from the lab as negative; this does suggest that other illnesses are being misidentified as Zika. However, it's always a good idea to factor in anecdotal accounts.

All the best,

Kevin

It's because the VI government is no longer cover the costs of the test, so no one is going to go pay to find out they have Zika when there is nothing you can do about it.

Yep, at least one friend (TTOL person) who was down for Halloween 2016 developed a confirmed case of Zika when she got home. Nobody I know who came down with Zika and lives in the VI visited a doctor or reported it. Treatment is Tylenol and rest.

Cheers, RickG