The 800 lb. Gorillas in the Election
Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:31 am
It could be argued that Obama's race and McCain's age and health are the proverbial 800 lb. gorillas in the room that everybody knows are there but can't talk about without appearing to be racist or ageist.
Certainly, these are highly sensitive issues that have to be talked about very carefully using politically correct code words.
Regarding race, it seems divided out there if we will have a "Bradley Effect" or a "Reverse Bradley Effect" in this election.
What it is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
That it is a "myth" that has been debunked:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/ ... ffect.html
Either way, it may be more likely than not that the polls are going to be way off in some places. This is another reason it is so important to vote. Don't think that just because the polls and the pundits are saying that your candidate can't win your state that you shouldn't bother voting. There are too many wild cards in this election.
I also thought the study released a couple of weeks ago by Stanford researchers on this topic was fascinating. It was a front page piece in many papers. I'm sure Palin saw it because she reads "All of 'em". They used pretty rigorous research techniques to conclude that Obama's support would be about 6% higher if he were white.
This OpEd piece entitled "Racism Without Racists" makes reference to that study and other research on this topic.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/opini ... istof.html
I hope I don't get flamed too badly for raising these issues. I tried to raise the legitimate issue of McCain's age and health in a neutral way by citing actuarial data in another post and got a predicable reply of righteous indignation, so be careful how you reply to this topic. The issue of race is hotter than abortion for some.
Example: I made an out context reference to a Bill Maher joke in that same thread that used an anachronistic racial expression that initially offended aroobagirl. Like abortion and most other emotionally charged "Third Rail Issues", you aren't going to change anybody's mind about how they feel about them, so maybe think twice about trying.
Certainly, these are highly sensitive issues that have to be talked about very carefully using politically correct code words.
Regarding race, it seems divided out there if we will have a "Bradley Effect" or a "Reverse Bradley Effect" in this election.
What it is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
That it is a "myth" that has been debunked:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/ ... ffect.html
Either way, it may be more likely than not that the polls are going to be way off in some places. This is another reason it is so important to vote. Don't think that just because the polls and the pundits are saying that your candidate can't win your state that you shouldn't bother voting. There are too many wild cards in this election.
I also thought the study released a couple of weeks ago by Stanford researchers on this topic was fascinating. It was a front page piece in many papers. I'm sure Palin saw it because she reads "All of 'em". They used pretty rigorous research techniques to conclude that Obama's support would be about 6% higher if he were white.
This OpEd piece entitled "Racism Without Racists" makes reference to that study and other research on this topic.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/05/opini ... istof.html
I hope I don't get flamed too badly for raising these issues. I tried to raise the legitimate issue of McCain's age and health in a neutral way by citing actuarial data in another post and got a predicable reply of righteous indignation, so be careful how you reply to this topic. The issue of race is hotter than abortion for some.
Example: I made an out context reference to a Bill Maher joke in that same thread that used an anachronistic racial expression that initially offended aroobagirl. Like abortion and most other emotionally charged "Third Rail Issues", you aren't going to change anybody's mind about how they feel about them, so maybe think twice about trying.